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Stock market reaction to iran nuclear news

Author: 
Mohsen Moradi and Mojtaba Mortezaee

The purpose of this study is to analyze the consequence of Iran nuclear newson Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market. Since 2002 Iranian people and the three governments(Reformist party led by Seyyed Mohammad Khatami, Fundamentalist party led by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Moderation and Development Party led by Hasan Rouhani) were involve in nuclear issue. Undoubtedly, according to all the economic experts and politicians economic sanctions are highly affected Iranian economy. We split the nuclear news into two categories (good and bad news) between 2002 to 2015 years. We used univariate asymmetric GARCH model. The results show that TSE had no meaningful reaction to good news and in some exceptional casesshowa slight positive reaction. On the other hand, all bad nuclear news has considerable negative influence on the returns and increase the TSE instability. Further, our results also confirm that bad nuclear news has stronger effect than good nuclear news. Allselectedindustries are also affected by bad news in the same way as TSE index. We also found that sixindustriesBanking, Automotive, Petrochemical, Finical mediation, Pharmaceuticals, Steel respectively are highly affected by bad nuclear news and their reaction to good nuclear news is insignificant.

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