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Implementation success or failure: the cop21 agreement for the 21rest century

Jan-Erik Lane

Only a multidisciplinary approach to the COP21 framework will help understanding what is involved in carrying its policy vision into effect. i.e. implementing the global decision of halting temperature rise to + 2 degrees or less. The natural sciences tell us that global warming is proceeding at an ominous pace: the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere keeps increasing: 399.6 (Jan 2015), 402.52 (Jan 2016) and 404.21 (March 2016). The COP21 idea is that this increase depends mainly upon the GHG emissions from energy production and consumption in a wide sense. Only the social sciences can analyse how the governments of the countries of the world may coordinate to decrease the CO2 emissions, before the methane emissions start augmenting. The standard energy projections for 21rst century speak of a Dena for immense increases, but energy consumption results in GHG emissions. This is the global contradiction between energy and emissions, stemming from the omnipresent demand for economic development or economic growth, The theory of policy implementation entails that implementation success is less likely than implementation failure, especially with a highly decentralised framework, like COP21. The consequences could be disastrous for the social systems of mankind and ecology systems everywhere. The UNFCCC Parties will have to struggle with a huge set of implementation issues over the next decades, but failure is in no way to be excluded. When COP21 is said to promise completely carbon neutral energy for the world, then the implementation perspective is long in time indeed, or the entire century.

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